Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Gut check

Let's do a quick gut check on where we are in the evolution of our information technology.

First we start with this math problem:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheat_and_chessboard_problem

Now we look at Moore's law:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law

In the abstract Moore's law is stating that the capacity of our compute resources doubles every 18 months, but let's extend that to say that the pace of technology adoption and our overall use of technology doubles in that same period.

If we start at the epoch of Jan 1, 1970 and count the number of 18 month periods we would have 28.6 periods, so let's round this up to 29.

This puts us here:
1,073,741,823
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%5Csum_%7Bi%3D0%7D%5E%7B29%7D+2%5Ei.%5C%2C+

Let's put this number in context, the last iteration, 28 was this number ( exactly half, of course ):
536,870,911

The next iteration will be ( exactly double, of course ):
2,147,483,647

These are some pretty huge numbers, in this model we can put numbers behind how fast things are about to start moving.  Look around you and watch how toddlers are running iPad's and learning how to adapt to the technology that the older generation is simply unequipped to deal with.

If this model is accurate, then the pace of technology is going to accelerate to a point where each successive cycle is going to double the velocity of the pace, which will accelerate everything even more.

This is a very exciting time to be alive!

1 comment:

  1. I agree we are living in exciting times. It will be interesting to see what industries are created around such rapped change. There are a great many things that need to be addressed not the least of which is social change on a grand scale and emotional change on a micro scale. How will human emotions adapt to the changing times so that we don't run the risk of causing a great deal of harm to ourselves first.

    ReplyDelete